The Constellation of American Voters: Partisan Sorting Near American Cities
Published:
Recommended citation: Duffin Wong, Jordan. (2025). "The Constellation of American Voters: Partisan Sorting Near American Cities".
More than 130 million Americans live in unincorporated areas, or spaces outside the boundaries of cities, towns, and villages. Furthermore, unincorporated residents are more likely to be Republican. However, we have little understanding of why: what features of local government pull or push people to live in or out of cities? Analyzing the near-universe of registered Democrats and Republicans in the United States, I trace the most detailed picture to date of partisan sorting behavior in and out of incorporated places, finding that unincorporated Americans are 14 percent more Republican than their municipality-dwelling counterparts. This gap does not meaningfully disappear when accounting for geographic scope or plausible confounders. My findings have significant implications for local politics research because they reveal a new and important cleavage in political geography.